Top Down Edge_Episode 2

21 June 2025

This week market we saw a huge fall in market on 19 June though NIFTY 50 did not fell much but stock specific action was very weak. Let me share with you the data of what happened on Thursday.

I also combine watchlist feedback with what market is doing. Thanks to the

The_Chartist 📈

and a friend of mine for this idea. While the market was going up the number of stocks passing near highs scan were reducing and my stop losses were hit on Wednesday which made me cautious and then on Thursday we saw a big drop. Friday was just a bounce or beginning of new rally on time will tell. Bounce on Friday could also be because of rebalancing in indices.

Now I’ll let the charts speak 😃:

A. Broad indices:

1. NIFTY 50: Nifty is in a broad range from 26 trading days and was getting weaker relative to NIFTY 500. Since it is in a broad range of 24500 - 25000 and mid small cap have fallen so it looks large caps are stronger.

   

2. NIFTY MIDSMALL 400: Breached the trendline it was going up without consolidation.

   

→ Mid cap index is performing better than smallcap index but still poor if you compare it with NIFTY 500

→ Small cap index is clearly underperforming

3. NIFTY MICROCAP 250: Seems like Mid, small and micro cap had parabolic moves now they are cooling off.

   

B. Sectoral indices:

1. NIFTY AUTO: Auto ancillaries companies were already strong seems like Nifty Auto is reversing.

   

2. NIFTY BANK: Takings it’s time to digest the quick move it gave. It is neither outperforming nor underperforming.

   

   Nifty Private Bank is moving Nifty Bank while Nifty PSU Banks are in a base.

   

   

3. NIFTY FINANCIAL SERVICES: Same story as Nifty Bank. ~75% of weight in this index is of banks. It is better to check index excluding banks.

   

4. NIFTY FINANCIAL SERVICES EX BANK: Seems like this has also slowed down. ~20% of this index is dominated by Bajaj Finance and Bajaj Finserv.

   

5. NIFTY FMCG: No comments I’ll let the chart speak

   

6. NIFTY HEALTHCARE: Let’s see of this can make a higher low and bounce back. ~60% of this index is dominated by Pharma companies. We will have to check hospitals separately as they are near highs. This index only has 3 hospitals.

   

7. NIFTY PHARMA: Same chart as Nifty Healthcare. Top 8 of 10 constituents are same.

   

8. NIFTY IT: IT stocks were in news this week as they held the market. Let’s see if this can sustain above 200 EMA. Coforge from this index was near highs way before the index started running.

   

9. NIFTY MEDIA: Trend has slowed but still in higher high, higher low structure. From the index constituents Saregama and Tips had good results but I haven’t studied them yet.

   

10. NIFTY METAL: Not a clean mover for sure. Will they form a double top 😟?

    

11. NIFTY REALTY: Definitely the strongest among all the sectors that we have seen.

    

12. NIFTY CONSUMER DURABLES: Same story as FMCG index.

    

13. NIFTY OIL & GAS: Confused about where it’s headed. Let’s wait and watch for this week.

    

14. S&P BSE: Telecom: Looks like this is ready for another move.

    

15. S&P BSE UTILITIES: In a base and below 200 EMA doing nothing.

    

C. Thematic Index:

1. NIFTY CAPITAL MARKET INDEX: This theme is still strong. Many stocks from this indices are strong. It is outperforming Nifty 500 as well as Nifty Financial Services excluding banks.

2. NIFTY COMMODITIES: Will you put money in this after seeing the ratio chart?

3. NIFTY CORE HOUSING: Seems like rate cut has started benefitting these stocks but they are still very far away from their 52 week highs.

   

4. NIFTY CPSE: Weightage of Bharat Electronics and Cochin Shipyard in this index is ~25% which is enough to move this index. Rest all stocks in this index are doing nothing.

   

5. NIFTY ENERGY: Still in a base

   

6. NIFTY EV: I don’t know why Reliance Industries (~4% weight) is included in this index. It is still underperforming.

   The Nifty EV & New Age Automotive Index aims to track the performance of the companies which are active in electric vehicles or new age automotive vehicles (such as hybrid vehicles, hydrogen fuel-based vehicles and green hybrid vehicles) segment. This particularly includes manufacturers of electric vehicles, new age automotive vehicles, electric batteries; electric vehicles or electric battery component producers, companies produce or supply raw materials that are relevant to the electric vehicle and autonomous vehicle technology segment, companies that build autonomous vehicles, and suppliers of autonomous vehicle technologies.

   

7. NIFTY HOUSING: This does not include any core housing finance companies.

   

8. NIFTY INDIA CONSUMPTION: This has diverse set of companies not a good index to follow.

   

9. NIFTY INDIA DEFENCE: This definitely looks strong 🚀.

   

10. NIFTY INDIA DIGITAL: This includes new age digital company and seems like they are doing good.

    

11. NIFTY INDIA MANUFACTURING INDEX: Make in India seems to be working and consolidating.

    

12. NIFTY NEW AGE CONSUMPTION: Let’s see where is this heading.

    

13. NIFTY INDIA RAILWAYS:

    

14. NIFTY INDIA TOURISM: Seems like this theme is still not strong but hotels are near highs. Will have to check them separately.

    

15. NIFTY INFRASTRUCTURE: It looks like it is moving but 3 stocks in this index (Reliance Industries, Interglobe Aviation, Bharti Airtel) has ~35% weight and movement in this three can move the index. Hence it is better to check what other stocks are doing before playing on this theme.

    

16. NIFTY IPO: IPO stocks are doing well in this market

    

17. NIFTY MNC: Includes stock with foreign promoter holding. It has neither fall nor increased much so it is looking relatively strong.

    

18. NIFTY MOBILITY: This looks like a good chart is consolidating as of now.

    

19. NIFTY PSE: Double top in formation but it is still underperforming Nifty 500.

    

20. NIFTY RURAL: Same story as FMCG index

    

21. NIFTY NON CYCLICAL CONSUMER: Cut copy paste of FMCG (~40% weight in this index).

    

22. NIFTY SERVICES: Where is this index heading?

    

D. CUSTOM INDICES:

1. CABLES & WIRES: Stocks in this sector are doing great.

   

2. INSURANCE: Low ADR stocks but smooth movers

   

3. HOPITALS: It was in a long base. Not sure will this outperform in upcoming week.

   

4. POWER: Underperforming NIFTY 500

   

5. SUGAR: They are in a long base. Only time will tell their direction.

   

6. TEXTILES: Looks like it was just a news based movement in these stocks.

   

7. FERTLIZERS: Fertilizers space is still hot.

   

Conclusion:

• Defence, Realty, Capital Markets, Digital theme stocks, IPO’s, Cables & Wires → Strongest

• Auto, IT, Core housing, PSE’s, Consumption → Reversal

• Consolidating → Private Banks, Pharma